Windows Phone

Discussion in 'Off Topic Area' started by Mitlov, Mar 14, 2012.

  1. Mitlov

    Mitlov Shiny

    HTC has definitely gone with the "bigger is better" mentality with their Android lineup. Heck, I'm not aware of any flagship-quality Android phones from any Android OEM that aren't pushing 4.5"-5.0" (or more in the Galaxy Note II's situation).

    But there ARE options for flagship quality in a more compact size if you step outside of Android.

    iPhone 5: 4.0 inches.
    HTC 8X: 4.3 inches.
    Blackberry Z10: 4.2 inches.

    The iPhone 5 is probably the best combination right now of small package plus good camera, if that's what you're looking for. The Lumia 920 (great camera) may only have a 4.5" screen, but it's physically as large as the 4.8-5.0" Android flagships.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2013
  2. aikiwolfie

    aikiwolfie ... Supporter

    And there is one of the many strengths of Android. It's open source and flexible. So handset vendors can differentiate their product. Microsoft on the other hand wants a monoculture.

    Windows Phone 8? Still not selling.
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/02/07/winphone8_share_still_shrinking/
     
  3. Mitlov

    Mitlov Shiny

    Before I go on, you do agree that HTC's Sense 5.0 is a direct aesthetic knock-off of Windows Phone, right? :)

    So in four sentences you condemn people who want a "monoculture," and then suggest people should stick with the OS that's dominant? That's like saying people should buy a Windows PC (~90% market share) instead of an OSX PC (~10% market share) because monoculture in PCs is bad. The market you seem to be advocating (Android, Android, and more Android, with some other Android mixed in for variety) is still fundamentally a monoculture, even if there are different aesthetic tweaks or skins from different OEMs.

    That's lumping the businesses that used Windows Mobile (an unrelated, pre-iPhone OS) years ago and are now finally shutting down their long-in-the-tooth Windows Mobile fleets. Once you segregate out Windows Phone and Windows Mobile numbers, Windows Phone is continuing to grow steadily, though it's still a small player (jockeying with Blackberry for a distant third in the smartphone sales race). Numerous articles are out there showing significant percentage growth for WP, not recession, though it still remains only a few percent of the US market and a smaller percentage of the international market.
     
  4. aikiwolfie

    aikiwolfie ... Supporter

    Yeah. If Windows mobile is falling off the map and Microsoft are still losing market share then Windows Phone 8 isn't picking up the slack. People are ditching Windows Mobile and opting for iPhone or Android or something else. It's not just Microsoft's performance that tells the story here. It's Nokia's as well. They didn't even make the top 5 of phone OEMs.

    I find it hard to believe Windows phone is growing. Microsoft in general hasn't been entirely forth coming with actual proper sales figures. Which in Microsoft's case is always a sign the plan isn't working and they'd rather save face.

    Now at no point did I say everybody had to stick with the dominant OS. I'm a strong believer in the benefits of healthy competition and there's plenty of that in the smart phone market and more on the way. What I did say was the ability to differentiate Android based products was a strength Android afforded hand set vendors.
     
  5. Mitlov

    Mitlov Shiny

    I went out and found some raw data about Q4 2012 and Q4 2011 for you. Source is Gartner Research.

    The raw data in its entirety: http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2335616

    Windows Phone is up to 3% market share in Q4 2012 from 1.8% market share in Q4 2011. This means that Windows Phone is in a similar position with smartphones than Linux is with PCs. A distant third in the market-share race? Yes. Making slow but steady gains? Yes. Going to disappear any time soon? No.

    Other lessons to be learned:

    (1) The dumbphone market, Nokia's historic primary market, is collapsing. Nevertheless, when you group smartphones and dumbphones together, Nokia is currently the second-best-selling OEM out there.

    (2) Symbian market share has totally collapsed, going from 11% to 1% in one year.

    (3) Android is approaching Windows PC levels of market-share dominance.

    (4) iOS is losing some ground.

    EDIT: And ABI Research had hard numbers on Nokia Lumia (Windows Phone) sales. 4.4 million sold in Q4 2012, up 40% from Q4 2011. Still a small player in the smartphone market but gaining ground. http://www.brighthand.com/default.asp?newsID=19775&news=BlackBerry+Windows+Phone
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2013
  6. aikiwolfie

    aikiwolfie ... Supporter

    No it doesn't. There is no reliable way to know how many Linux PCs are out there. Most are bought pre-loaded with Windows, which artificially inflates Windows market share since the consumer had no real choice, and then wiped. Alternatively some of those Windows machines are also Linux machines through the magic of dual-booting. Which is also true of Macs. Some Macs dual-boot to Windows, Linux or other OS's.

    In contrast this is not a common situation with smart phones. The norm is for people to buy a phone and stick with the pre-loaded OS. Even when people are loading a new OS it's normally the latest version of Android. Microsoft have Windows Phones locked down as does Apple. There's no option to tinker.

    So desktop Linux market share numbers are pie in the sky at best.

    According to Gartner. comScore sees it differently. Nokia didn't even make their top 5. However a collapsing dumbphone market is a problem for Nokia. It reduces their spending power as their smart phone sales aren't compensating for their loses. It also reduces their market presence. Over all Nokia sales are down. And even according to Gartner's numbers all mobile phone sales declined 1.7% globally.

    A Nokia that isn't quite performing yet is a problem for Microsoft. Nokia are Microsoft's preferred hardware partner in the smart phone market.

    That is what one would expect when the parent company are deliberately discontinuing the product. Which doesn't look good for Windows Phone 8 which is struggling to compete against a discontinued OS.

    Unlike in the PC space however it is relatively easy for new competitors to enter the race in the mobile phone market. Google don't have a strangle hold on the phone OEM's. Consumers are more likely to switch because they're not as invested in their phones as they might be in their desktop PCs.

    Most people don't bat and eye at buying a new phone. They go out, find one they like for the right price and buy it. When people are considering switching to a Mac or to Linux they get all tied up in knots over applications and the unfamiliarity of the GUI and terminology. Even though most of it works in exactly the same way from the point of view of the end user. Point, click, stuff happens.

    So when we're talking about OS dominance. The PC market and the mobile phone markets aren't really comparable.

    Well yes it is. But to whom? Market share for any particular OS naturally fluctuates year on year. Apple disappointed consumers with their latest offerings. Bad software left a lot of die-hards unhappy and turned off normal consumers. It's not surprising they've lost some ground.

    In addition iOS is beginning to look quite stale. Apple are spending more and more of their time matching feature for feature with Android rather than introducing something new.

    If you're not selling anything and respond with massive discounts and subsidies then that's not surprising. The question then is how will Windows Phone perform when Microsoft stops subsidising it? Nokia's sales are still down over all. They're fighting for 3rd place primarily against RIM. However Firefox OS, Tizen and Ubuntu Phone are all on their way and will be jockeying for position.

    Ubuntu Phone will be the one to watch. It has a very unique selling point that will be very attractive to a lot of people. And there is now a tablet version of Ubuntu Phone OS. Ubuntu also now has a consistent OS across phones, tablets and desktops. And they had a head start on Microsoft in getting there. Ubuntu users have already gone through the pain of major GUI change. They've now adjusted and the reviews of Ubuntu phone are positive.

    In contrast Windows 8 is selling so badly Chrome Books are taking market share. They now account for 5% of Acer's US sales. The whole point of Metro/Tiles/Whatever it's called now is to have Windows users, use the same GUI on all of their devices. If they're not buying Windows tablets or Windows PCs however that plan falls apart and impacts on Windows Phone 8.

    The problem Windows Phone 8 faces is far more complicated than just bidding for third place in the mobile phone race. Microsoft have gone from have something like 95% of the entire personal computing device market to just 20% in 10 years. They're running on inertia and that won't carry them forever. They really need to pull something out of the bag soon.
     
  7. Mitlov

    Mitlov Shiny

    Here's a compilation of different surveys conducted in different ways. Estimates for Windows Phone market share range from 1% to 3%. Estimates of Linux market share for desktops ranges from 1% to 5%. I'd call that pretty similarly situated.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linux#Market_share_and_uptake

    Let me ask you a question: do you WANT to see Microsoft fail in the smartphone market? Do you have personal feelings about the company, like you find them ethically repugnant or something? Because the zeal in which you're attacking this suggests to me that you do, and the extent to which you're suggesting that completely-unproven competitors not yet in the market who lack significant financial backing (Firefox OS, Ubuntu phone) will beat Microsoft suggests to me that you have some personal feelings involved. And I just need to know the greater context of this discussion.
     
  8. aikiwolfie

    aikiwolfie ... Supporter

    Only if you take the figures at face value without bothering to understand them. This century saw more people choose to live in cities and major urban settlements for the first time ever in human history than in the country side. At face value we might conclude all of those people like living in the city. The reality however is most moved because they had a powerful need to eat and better their lives. Living in the city is a means to an end. Not what they actually wanted to do.

    Linux usage is massively under reported.

    The fact I don't like Microsoft isn't a secrete on this forum. With that said however, I have no particular desire to see them fail in the smart phone market. I simply don't accept they are as successful as they are trying to paint themselves to be. I do have an interest in technology so I participate in these threads.

    I think Ubuntu Phone has a very good chance in the market because it does actually have some decent financial backing. It's made by Canonical who do business with the likes of Google, Intel, Microsoft, Dell and many others. Their desktop and sever products are popular. Not as popular as Red Hat. But they have a strong following. Strong enough that Microsoft's own customers demand support for Ubuntu and Linux in general in Azure. Which is Microsoft's cloud platform.

    Ubuntu Phone also has unique selling points no other phone OS is offering and they are useful selling points. The OS can scale from very low powered hand sets to feature phones. On the feature phones it can become an ARM based desktop PC when plugged into a display, keyboard and mouse. It takes everything Windows Phone 8, Windows 8 RT and Windows 8 Pro has to offer and wraps it all up in one single portable package. And because it's open source and all of it's key desktop apps are open source, you can run the same apps on your Ubuntu phone as you would run on your full size Intel based desktop PC. Libre Office for example is available for Mac, Linux and Windows.

    In contrast Microsoft are still playing catch up with Apple and Google. Android started life as Android Inc. It was a niche Linux based phone OS until Google bought it. Android used to be one of those OSs in the "other" category.

    Oh I almost forgot. Ubuntu Phone actually does look really good.
     
  9. aikiwolfie

    aikiwolfie ... Supporter

    Oh one quick word about Net Applications statistics. They are frequently criticised for amongst other things being far too American centric.

    Ubuntu for example is so popular in Asia, Dell sell it pre-installed in shops the same way they sell Windows in the UK or USA. It's a similar situation in Brazil and other South American countries.
     
  10. Mitlov

    Mitlov Shiny

    Thanks for the straight-up answer. I suspected you had a dislike for Microsoft that went far deeper, and far predated, anything about Windows Phone 7 or 8 or the Metro design language.

    I think Ubuntu Phone's concept is a good one, but it's easier said than done to make one OS that works equally well with just a "subtle phase shift" in UI (their words, not mine) with everything from a 4" phone screen to a 10" touchscreen table to a 27" keyboard-and-mouse-equipped desktop). If they can pull it off, more power to them. I like having OSes that can stretch multiple devices (I use Windows 8 on a convertible tablet, the Vaio Duo 11, and I love the versatility it delivers). But I'm skeptical that they'll be able to deliver as much versatility as they're promising...everything between 4" touchscreens and 27" desktops from one OS. I mean, maybe the phone OS "can run LibreOffice" in a literal sense, but if it's impossible to effectively use it on a 4" touchscreen, who cares?

    I'm not sure Linux user numbers are so under-represented. In high school, college, law school, and my professional career, I've never met anyone who uses Linux as their primary laptop or desktop OS. And I've only known a couple people (my brother being one of them) who even use it as a secondary OS. I know more people who drive Saabs than use Linux, y'know? ;)

    As for good-looking, that's as subjective as subjective can be. But HTC completely redesigning Sense to blatantly mimic Metro design suggests that yes, a significant number of people really like it. That doesn't mean YOU have to like it yourself, but I think there were some comments earlier about how "everyone hates tiles" or something like that, and the Sense 5.0 redesign is further evidence that no, that's not the case.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2013
  11. aikiwolfie

    aikiwolfie ... Supporter

    When Ubuntu Phone is in desktop mode, you get the standard Ubuntu Unity desktop. The GUI switches to accommodate the display and usage case. But still works in a consistent way. Canonical have been working on this for a long time. They've trialled the concept with Ubuntu for Android.

    The idea isn't that you'll necessarily be using Libra Office in phone mode. Although with something like the Samsung Galaxy Nexus, which Canonical are using as the reference hardware, it might just be usable. The idea is that you can now have one device where you previously had 3 or 4 devices. It de-clutters life and makes everything simpler. Which is always a big theme in technology. It also introduces people to the Ubuntu desktop environment and alternative apps like Libre Office in a nice friendly way that very quickly becomes familiar. And it breaks down that adoption mental block I talked about earlier.

    As for Canonical not being able to pull this off. They already have. The phone OS works. The tablet version works (the Nexus 7 was the reference hardware) and the desktop version has been around for ages. Canonical's challenge, like Microsoft's is driving adoption. Which is why they worked with Valve to bring Steam to Linux. Decent gaming has always been a barrier to adoption. That barrier is now crumbling.

    Canonical also have another advantage over Microsoft. Linux people as almost as fanatical as Mac users. Even more so in many respects. Microsoft don't really have that sort of following to the same degree. Even in corporate environments their iron tight grip is beginning to loosen as the recession bites into IT budgets. While you may pay for professional support, Linux is generally free gratis. Which quickly adds up to massive mid to long term savings even if their is an initial investment cost to switching.
     
  12. Mitlov

    Mitlov Shiny

  13. aikiwolfie

    aikiwolfie ... Supporter

    Because the hobbyists are already flashing versions of it to their phones and making it work on non-Nexus hardware. Canonical have a working product. It might not be on the market as such, but it exists and works. From a purely technical point of view, they've pull it off. The marketing execution will be a different story. They haven't quite learned to do that well yet.

    Windows 8 still has "kinks" to be worked out. Yet it's on sale.
     
  14. Mitlov

    Mitlov Shiny

    I just learned that this isn't Mozilla's first rodeo with smartphones, though I guess the Seabird never hit the market. Nice-looking hardware though.

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oG3tLxEQEdg"]Mozilla Seabird 2D - YouTube[/ame]

    Anyway, I think the an increasing problem that Windows Phone, Firefox Phone, and Ubuntu Phone all are going to face are bring-your-own-device restrictions for business. Industry is moving away from issuing people smartphones for business use (and letting them use anything they want for personal use) and into a market where people just bring their own device and the IT people set it up to handle business as well as the personal. Under my company's new BYOD policies, if we want to use our smartphones for work as well as personal, they have to be iOS or Android. So even though Windows Phone is my favorite mobile OS, I'm now retiring my HTC 7 Pro and getting a Galaxy S III (which should arrive later this week). Why? I need work email on my phone, and thanks to my office's BYOD policies, that's not going to happen with any WP device.
     
  15. aikiwolfie

    aikiwolfie ... Supporter

    That will change as more businesses start using "cloud" services. Or just realise this Internet thing goes pretty much everywhere today. Microsoft are already positioning Office prices to make Office 365 more appealing than the traditional stand-alone installation. Which isn't a bad move. Unfortunately for Microsoft a number of other companies have been operating in that space for a long time now and are as close to 100% up-time as anybody could reasonably expect. Which can't really be said for Office 365. Microsoft are even dropping the ball on simple stuff like renewing security certificates.
     
  16. Mitlov

    Mitlov Shiny

    Nokia's Lumia line (the dominant WP8 hardware, by far) is now outselling Blackberry worldwide, despite the release of Blackberry 10 devices.

    http://www.kitguru.net/mobile/joseph-mcdonnell/nokia-lumia-outsells-blackberry/

    Neither is a credible threat to the two titans right now--Apple and Samsung--but Nokia's Lumia line is now competing very well with all the other "second-tier" OEMs (Blackberry, HTC, Sony, etc).
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2013
  17. Princess Haru

    Princess Haru Valued Member

    ouch... I don't know if I mentioned anywhere so just to let you guys know I eventually went with a Nokia Lumia 620, it's fairly dinky, not flagship, does most of what I needed a phone to do, not quite got up to speed with all functions but have tried out a few apps, the phone part is okay, texting is okayish (bit of an issue with multimedia messaging), interwebs on wifi okay (not got a data package yet, still using my old vodafone cut up sim credit), photos okay, haven't quite found good indoor settings though I did manage to take some now with right focus and flash settings
     
  18. Mitlov

    Mitlov Shiny

    The 620 is definitely not flagship--I think it retails for $250 off-plan in the US (for comparison, flagships generally retail for $600 or up off-plan)--but as an entry-level or affordability-oriented device, I think it's one of the best out there. I've heard a lot of people say that WP8 runs smoother, with less lag, on entry-level hardware than Android; that was certainly true with WP7.
     
  19. aikiwolfie

    aikiwolfie ... Supporter

    When you say competing with second tier OEM's. Is that just in terms of WP8? Last I read they were selling more units. But making less money on them.

    http://www.gsmarena.com/nokia_q2_report_more_lumias_sold_less_money_made-news-6408.php

    HTC aren't doing as well as they'd like. In fact business is terrible relatively speaking. Their hand set shipments are in decline. But they still managed to shift 5 million HTC One's in around 50 days.

    http://www.phonedog.com/2013/07/05/...owth-from-q1-but-year-over-year-profit-drops/

    http://www.phonedog.com/2013/05/23/htc-one-sales-reach-around-5-million-since-its-launch-last-month/

    Nokia's WP8 line isn't quite competing yet. And to make matters worse. Microsoft have been forced to slash the price of Windows RT Surface tablets. Which means people aren't buying it. Which in turn means the whole Windows on every device ecosystem thing isn't quite going according to plan.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57593802/microsoft-slashes-surface-rt-price-by-$150/
     
  20. Princess Haru

    Princess Haru Valued Member

    people are not replacing old PCs and laptops as much now they have tablets and smartphones? I'm guilty of that too, having just fixed the cooling issue on my 5-6 year old laptop. Stripped out the fan, cleaned up the area, replaced the coolant with arctic mx2, replaced the fan and its about 10C cooler, the fan is much quieter and it doesn't peak nearly as much, even encoded a big video file overnight yesterday :D
     

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