Are the protests flaring up in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, etc. leading to a new democratic movement sweeping the region or are they ultimately going to fall short of creating serious democratic changes in the Middle East?
I don't think the people in the Middle East want or are ready for democracy. If the protests are successful they will result in something else. At least in the case of Egypt it would be a step away from democracy.
Hows that? In Egypt, the main call is for the totally undemocratic Mubarak to not stand for a 6th term, after ruling for 29 straight years. The protestors are apparently trying to stop the muslim brotherhood from hijacking the protests which would move any success away from democracy and would more importantly give the authority’s something to really crack down on. I would have liked the protests to not have jumped over Libya and Saudi!
I agree with brendo. The Middle East is capable of having liberal democracys. I think people wrongly assume that the countries there would descend into Theocracies. I don't believe that's true. But likewise I also acknowledge that fanatics would have more influence. Examples: -Lebanon's divided between moderate coalitions led by Harriri and and Hezbollah -Pakistan's limited democracy is divided by the successors of Bhutto Benzanir and Taliban/other fanatatical groups -Palestine is divided by the moderate Palestinian Authority and Hamas - Iraq has a variety of moderate parties as well as fanatical religious groups I think its clear that fanatics are a problem but I don't see how suppressing democracy would really help, if anything it would just squeeze out the moderates and inflame the fanatics. But all that aside, good or bad, I don't know if these protests are a sign of sweeping change or just a temporary situation.
The whole thing is problematic for the UK and the US. The riots highlight the fact that our whole policy in the middle east is pretty brutal and purely based on our own self interests. We (The US at least, probably us in the UK as well) have sent billions to Egypt in weapons aid and if Mubarak gets ousted then we are going to have to answer some pretty pointed questions along the lines of: "Hey, see those guns used by the paramilitary forces to shoot our mates during a peaceful protest, now where did they come from?" Tunisia is exactly the same. The whole thing reveals us for the massive hypocrites that we actually are when it comes to foreign policy. If we don't like you/ you get between us and our oil then youre a dictator or you rig elections are fixed. If we like you then your totally a democraticly elected government because they hold elections every six years*. And we wonder why people in the middle east hate us? * I mean granted theres only one name allowed on the ballot paper but thats what "One man one vote" means isn't it? I mean whats the point of having mroe than one name on the papers if you only have one vote? People with friends in the middle of it, now shush whilst the grown ups are talking.
To actually answer your quesation I think it makes sense to look at how the attitudes our governments are showing towards these movements are shifiting. They are slowly coming round to the idea that theres going to be a shift in power so their statements are becoming slowly mroe supportive of the movements because they know they will need to get in with them good at soem point sopon if they really are going to redefine the ways those countries are governed. So basically, they will get somewhere but we will push for a return to the status quo to keep the countries in line as much as possible.
As someone who briefly worked in the middle east and worked for two decades outside of the US, seeing whats happening in Egypt/Tunisia is sort of like a "be careful what you wish for" thing. It can backfire against the western nations interests i.e. Iran after the Shah rather than a country going democratic. I see nothing but bad things likely to come out of the overthrow of most current governments in the middle east. I'm not saying whats there now is all strawberries and cream, but what will probably follow will be worse in my opinion.
Ah what fascinating times we live in... The unrest in Egypt has been simmering for a long time. Mubarak has ruled for close to three decades without naming a Vice President. He is now 80 and in ill health. There was rampant speculation that he was setting up his son (Gamal) to be next in line for the presidency. Of course not all interested parties were agreeable to having another Mubarak leading the country. The people are clearly ready for a change. The military does not trust Gamal as he did not come out of the military so young Mubarak will not be Egypt's next leader. The power of the military in Egypt should not be underestimated. It has the respect of the people unlike the dreaded internal security apparatus. The generals may be making their moves behind the scenes and coaxing Mubarak out. Mubarak, for his part, will not be fleeing Egypt like a thief in the night or the president of Tunisia when he went into exile in Saudi Arabia. The Muslim Brotherhood will have a difficult time getting at the head of this movement simply because the generals won't allow it to happen. The question then becomes what happens next? There is no obvious successor to Mubarak as of yet. He has dismissed the government. Everyone is ready for him to step down, only the time line is in question. Will the protesters have a go at the troop like they did the police? What greater ripples will this cause across the region? Comparing Tunisia to Egypt is like comparing the tail to the dog. Egypt is the most powerful country in the Arab world. The fact that events have unfolded this far is a huge development. Anyone who has spent time in Egypt can tell you that the internal security infrastructure is huge. I may exaggerate slightly when I used to say there were parts of Cairo where you couldn't swing a dead cat without hitting a cop. The next few weeks will be fascinating to observe. There will be an orderly transition or things will get uglier. I do hope whatever happens is more peaceful than it has been. Mubarak is on the way out one way or another.
My wife for one, my in laws are hopefully being evacuated from Cairo today if all goes well. I think your post should have read:
Just to add to that, they've not had much luck getting out plus the protesting has spread to the Maadi area of Cairo where they live. There's some light gun fire and looting so everyone in the family is a little nervous at the moment.
The lack of democracy isn't the problem fuelling the protests. It's bad governance and a very unequal distribution of wealth. So I don't think democracy is the inevitable end result here. But there will be a change in government. Of the states affected only Tunisia hasn't had to deal with these uprisings before or for a substantial period of time. All other north African dictatorships have more experience dealing with this sort of unrest. So I suspect they'll pull through. Democracy also isn't the goal for western interests in the middle east and north Africa. It's stability. If the region is stable and the people on the surface at least appear happy. Then western governments can trade with them.
Aikwolfe I don't necessarily disagree the economics is a bigger cause for the protests than democracy per se but I do think many of those same people protesting want representation in their government in order to achieve the economic changes. I hate to quote myself but just cuz I already said it. Short term strongmen may provide stability but their oppression creates resentment and as soon as they can't bring home the bacon and lean on the people the only way for a change is violent change. Long term democracies provide stability because of the ability for people to circulate leadership peaceably as well as providing an outlet for them through representation. Democracies don't always work a handful of countries have slipped back into authoritarian governments but perhaps just as few dictatorships provide the type of prosperity that keeps their nations happy enough not to itch for regime change.
Unfortunately, I see Egypt a yet another Islamist state by the end of the summer. I pray I'm wrong, but I'm not hopefull.
I don't think most of Egypt will be worried by that, not only are the vast majority of Egyptians Muslims but the church already has a lot of influence on how people act.
For the people who understand what's going on, what's likely to happen with the army? As far as I can tell from the bbc they've been deployed but aren't doing anything, presumably because they want a change as much as anyone else. So if Mubarak stays on and refuses to back down is Egypt looking at a coup?
man anytime they show pictures of civilians sitting atop tank turrets that's never a good sign. Now today I read the jailbreak of skads of criminals. Dire.
AFAIK the army is made up from conscript forces and they've concentrated on protecting civic buildings. They have alsos sided with the protesters against the police in several cases. They do have the power to swing the uprising any way they want but it would take some serious leadership to make that happen. Al-Jazeera English has a fantastic coverage of the whole mess, complete with near-constant live feed
