Election ... who's gonna win

Discussion in 'Off Topic Area' started by iolair, May 5, 2005.

  1. iolair

    iolair Mostly Harmless

    3 Results so far ....

    Houghton & Washington East (Labour Hold)
    Labour down 8.9 percent, LibDems up 5.5% :), BNP up 3.9% :(

    Sunderland North (Labour Hold)
    Labour down 8.3 percent, LibDems up 2.7%, Cons up 1.9%

    Sunderland South (Labour Hold)
    Labour down 5.3 percent, LibDems up 2.8%, Cons up 2%


    If those swings averaged (Lab -7.5%, LibDems +3.7%, Cons +1.5%) worked across the country, the new parliament would look like this:

    Vote share
    Labour: 33.5%
    Conservatives: 33.5%
    LibDems: 21.7%
    Others: 9.4%

    Seats
    Labour: 343
    Conservatives: 214
    LibDems: 59
    Others: 30

    which still leaves labour with an overall majority of 40... yes, labour and conservatives would have equal vote, but labour still in a strong position but at least now vulnerable to backbench results within the party...

    Don't you love the British electoral system ... I'd love to see some system of PR, but I can't see that happening as the current system clearly works far too well in the current government's favour.
     
  2. Strafio

    Strafio Trying again...

    I found this whole tactical voting business kind of depressing too.

    It's like all these people are frozen in the 80's with their mission to rid the world of Thatcher...
     
  3. xen

    xen insanity by design

    can someone explain how an equal share of the vote leads to such a difference in appointed MP's?

    Is it something to do with the different numbers of voters in each constinuency?
     
  4. Strafio

    Strafio Trying again...

    Well, I think that the final thing is decided by how many seats.
    So if Labour won more seats by scrapes and Tories one few landslide seats, they could have similar amounts of votes but less seats = no power.

    I think that's the way it works...
     
  5. xen

    xen insanity by design

    i think i get it.

    labour could have 10 seats with only 100 majority, cons. could have 2 seats with 7500 majority...cons. got more votes, but they were all concentrated in two places, therefore labour get the goodies...
     
  6. Ren-shi-shin

    Ren-shi-shin New Member

    I don't understand. Who wants to see Tony Blair anymore? argh! what's wrong with the lib dems?
     
  7. iamraisen

    iamraisen Valued Member

    WELL LABOUR WON WITH A 66 SEAT MAJORITY. suprise. however both lib dems and tories made some good gains and parliament looks a lot more democratic than it did yesterday. does anyone know what the turnout was like?
     
  8. iolair

    iolair Mostly Harmless

    Labour, LibDems, Conservatives, Veritas and BNP all claim that the result has been very good for them. Isn't that nice, everyone wins...

    Turn out was up by 1.5% on last time... I think something like 49% overall.
     
  9. iamraisen

    iamraisen Valued Member

    i think it has to be higher- thought it was 50% last year!
     
  10. DangerMouse

    DangerMouse Dazed & Confused

    Can't seem to find the overall turnout figures yet - maybe they're not publishing them unitl all of the seats have been returned. Each area that has returned has got a pretty good breakdown on the BBC's site here including turnouts. The ones I've looked over seem quite high, around the 55% mark.
     
  11. iamraisen

    iamraisen Valued Member

    the figures at the moment show around a 61% turnout compared with 59% in 2001. im just waiting to see how much electoral fraud went on. IMO it will be alot in labour owned innercity area's.
     
  12. Anth

    Anth Daft. Supporter

    Yay! Local places out first! :D

    BNP up in Houghton? Makes sense to me, knowing quite a few 18yo's round there that would have voted for them. I wonder what Easington was :)

    EDIT: Name / Party / Votes / % / +/- / %
    John Cummings / Labour / 22,733 / 71.4 / -5.4
    Christopher Ord / Liberal Democrat / 4,097 / 12.9 / +2.6
    Lucille Nicholson / Conservative / 3,400 / 10.7 / +0.4
    Ian McDonald / British National Party / 1,042 / 3.3 / +3.3
    Dave Robinson / Socialist Labour Party / 583 / 1.8 / -0.7

    Lib Dems better than Torys? I wonder why. Possibly because they wrecked most of this area last time they were in power? BNP up 3.3%? Ageain, that makes sense to me.
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2005

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