An analysis of Holly Holm vs. Ronda Rousey...

No, they make headline fights based on how many people will pay to see it, how much money they can expect to bring in, how well they build their narratives, how marketable the fighters are.

 

What do you mean by "Polls"? Those little pop-up windows on MMA sites that ask who would you like to see so-'n-so fight next? Professional statisticians from Gallup knocking on the doors of a random sampling of the right demographic group?

I'd wager that 90% or better of his decision is based on a (heavily) weighted arithmetic mean of the opinions of two people.

Silva and Shelby.

 

I would like to see Holm v Zigano/Davis. I don't know why though, but either of those 2 fights I think will turn out well.

Holm is beatable with a good all rounder, Davis has had quite a few fights (more than 15? Needs to be factchecked later). And I thought Davis would've beaten Rousey but obviously went wrong.

This HH/RR fight kinda made sense as RR had beaten the top 10 and no one wanted to really watch RR/Tate 3. I personally thought that HH was about 2 fights away from the title, since her first couple of fights weren't great (both by decision).

 

It doesn't matter who'd make a good fight for Holm. Who anyone would like to see in the cage with her...who'd be a good match...who Holm should fight.

Its quite obvious at this point that the UFC doesn't care about Holm - the only special I've seen on her was done on AXS TV*. I've seen no discussions on any of the recent UFC programmes that I've watched. No mention whatsoever on last evenings UFC Tonight or whatever recap show it is they do after Fight Night.

Its almost as if the brass have ordered some sort of no-discuss policy.

They not only don't care, they may even be quite resentful of her when the cameras are not on.

I understand the business decisions and their implications that have to be considered but they've become almighty greedy, now. They expect every title holder to be a media darling or they don't support them.

They might as well hire actors with "star appeal" and train them to fight because the skill of fighting has become a distant runner up to the drama show.


* A segment from the show

[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlGKu6GJ8cM"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlGKu6GJ8cM[/ame]

 

Dana had this really strange awkward smile on his face at one point during the aftermath of the fight. He had the look of someone who was laughing at themselves because they just lost a bet. I remember seeing him in the Octagon standing behind Holly at one point and wondering what he was thinking. The fact that they want an immediate rematch kind of plays into the fact that they invested a lot in Ronda and didn't really like their cash cow getting exposed. Remember how they originally released that promo for this fight only showing Ronda's childhood and then her meeting up with Holm? I remember Holly sharing the second version that actually made references to her own career. She said she would share it now after it was more complete.

The UFC is slowly heading down the same road as boxing wherein you create paper champions and paper challengers for that champion so that you can make a lot of the green paper. The Bethe fight in particular showcased this to me because to be blunt, Bethe was absolutely terrible and did not deserve a title shot at all. She beat no one even close to the top 5 and there was not a single girl in the top 5 she could beat. (Hell...probably not most of them in the top 10.) Situations like Frankie Edgar earning his title shot only to hand it to Conor MacGregor who also hadn't beaten anyone of note, but hey, he sure pulled a lot of money in from Ireland. Wonder how that is going to crash when Aldo smashes him.

 

I don't think Ronda was exposed, so much as she found her Frazier. Ronda is anything but a paper champion and has fought teh best in teh division, but therein lies the rub - teh division is not that deep. Mcann, Tate, Zingano - all world class in their own right and all made to look incredibly ordinary by Ronda; you cannot consistently do that and be called "fake" or "protected". She TROUNCED them roundly.

Holm spotted a flaw, and used it to her advantage. Stick and move and frustrate the grappler - something everyone else had not thought of when they went for broke with the "she has never been hit" approach. In a rematch I think Ronda takes it on a physical level....the big question mark is how she takes the loss psychologically

You are on right about Bethe - she played the "Sonnen" card heavily, and talked herself into a payday. She can now safely reside in obscurity where she belongs.

 

I don't think Frazier is a good example because Ali vs. Frazier was at least competitive in their first match. And Ali came off of that long lay off before he took the fight. There were very legit reasons. This is why Laila Ali pointed out you should never get beaten up like that in your prime. I think Ronda can come back but Ali vs. Frazier 1 was FAR more competitive then Holm vs. Rousey. (I also think Sonnen was far more legit then Bethe, but I see your point. Nobody can argue that Sonnen vs. Silva 1 was the most vicious beating Silva had ever taken in his prime. Bethe on the other hand.... sheesh. My 10 year old daughter throws better punches then Bethe.)

[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovAX58V6S5o"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovAX58V6S5o[/ame]

 

Frazier and Foreman then; or Foreman vs anyone not called Ali - Laila is 100% wrong

 

[ame="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLH3uy87gVk"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLH3uy87gVk[/ame]

 

I love how she loses one fight and everyone is rushing to rewrite history.

She lost that fight because she tried to keep it standing and she went chasing a southpaw around the octagon (and she probably did that because she was stunned and not thinking right).

I think if she comes back, she wins the rematch regardless of whether or not she changes camp, because she'll have a 'take her down, tap her out' game plan. You know - the game plan that made her famous.

 

No...she did it because she was, and is incompetent in striking and always has been outside of the clinch. She literally has no idea what to do. She has no sense of distance of proper footwork, or defense. She literally has no striking game at all. She has power in her right hand and an idiot coaching her how to use it. That's why I pointed out her KO of Bethe was done with "All of the technique and flair of a ghetto girl in a world star hip hop video..." because there was nothing correct about it.

She tried that. And failed. She wasn't keeping it standing by choice. She was being avoided through real boxing footwork. She tried to throw her multiple times and failed. It's not like she stood there toe to toe and tried to box it out. She was throwing punches because she couldn't get close enough to her to grab her most of the time. She got blasted because her boxing defense is horrible. Jackson's game plan was to counter the game plan that you somehow think if she goes back to she will magically win. Unless something drastic happens to her striking defense between now and the rematch she is going to go down harder then last time. She has nothing resembling real resources to develop a better game plan then anything that is going to come out of Jackson's MMA. Carla Esparza had a single leg takedown and ground and pound "game plan" against Joanna and got crushed too.

(Don't try to re-write history. Nobody who is trying to keep it standing goes for desperation throws.)

 

I think she was stunned in the first for one reason - she got taken down and then could do nothing to stop Holm standing straight back up. This is an Olympic medallist in Judo.

I'll rewatch the fight, but this certainly isn't what I remember watching.

 

http://m.fightland.vice.com/blog/how-holly-holm-killed-queen-ronda-rousey

Well worth a read.

Rondas fight determining weakness was her boxing and more specifically her footwork.

 

Looks like a brilliant analysis, I will finish it later but so far it looks excellent.

 

I didn't see it - wish I had - rather, would love to go in and edit a few gifs from a full download.





They are beginning to remove key clips - not the big punches/ko but of these little grappling exchanges - getting hard to find.

Dead Pool - that was a good find!

 

I would not want to be a conspiracy theorist, but it is amazing how fast fight break downs of this fight keep getting taken down. Firas from Tristar (GSP's coach) had a beautiful break down of the grappling that was taken down. All he used was clips which is textbook fair use.

 

this version should come with the HTML 5 code controls (if you want to slow it down)

Nevermind ...

If I can manage this one as a video, you'll notice Ronda does take Holly's arm but instead of Holm falling to the floor as all Ronda's other opponents have done...

Can't embed the controls...have to settle for the gif...



** credit for the gifs goes to one EXjeonjiYubin at Redit.com's bjj section

Anyroad, I can't really say, not having seen the whole fight and don't want to take the gifs out of context - but having said that, it doesn't look to be that Ronda was incapacitated so much as frustrated and fighting emotionally. She seemed to shake off the blows in round 1 pretty well (from what I've seen) and land a few barrages herself - as well as from the ground.

Like she really had banked on a 30 second win and when that didn't happen...she had a temper tantrum - which may have been what HH was trained to expect.

All of Ronda's past wins are what they are - no more and no less.

This loss is also what it is, no more and no less.

Someone said a few posts back and its been said a number of times over the last couple of years - the division is fledgling and lacks depth. Its quite possible that with a mature WMMA in a few years, we will look at all of this in a totally different light.

What will be interesting to see is

1) Was this whole thing nothing more than a vehicle for 1 exciting and very dominating female fighter who captured the fancy of UFC brass - is it really an honest division?

I'd like to think so, but the way the brass are acting, its as if they are going into damage control mode - instead of being excited that there is a new, very talented woman with some kinda killer highlight reels to add to the mix - that really bothers me.

One can admire and appreciate RR's accomplishments for WMMA and still find it distressing in the way the UFC are handling this - they are creating "haters" that weren't necessarily against Ronda to begin with.

Ignoring Holm until mid 2016, or whenever suits RR (who may just decide not to return at the last moment) is bad. I understand the risks if Holm should loose to an opponent not named RR but if HH is a Buster Douglas, then she is and it needs to come out in the wash. RR was thrashed soundly and nothing - regardless of who else fights and wins or looses will change that.

Why are you guys worried about the UFC not making money off a potential rematch? lol. Dana's not analysing your bottom-line, doesn't care, why are we caught up in analyising his?

Lets put the kool-aide down, folks. Dana will be alright, don't worry him.

2) Having said the above, its also equally true that there is no other fight in WMMA more worthy of being seen than a HH/RR rematch. - Did Ronda simply have an "off night", which she is certainly entitled to, or is there something much deeper - Rousey's emotional approach to fighting may have a greater role (in both her wins and her loss) than we previously thought.

TBH, I haven't looked at enough of Rousey's fights to tell if this has always been her style, if there's any indications that she's able/not able to reassess and make adjustments in real-time (e.g. Floyd Mayweather, etc)

I don't think that she needs to spend a great deal of time learning boxing - why should she? What she does need is to learn to temper her 'I'm superwoman-and-I'm-gonna-eat-you-up' to include some strategy and mixing things up a bit - to employ strategy with the tools she has already.

Lets face it folks, Holm is beatable (who isn't?) and Ronda was predictable enough that Jackson was able to choreograph a game plan to the point where a good, disciplined fighter (no, not the greatest fighter to ever live, a decent one) was able to make Ronda act, literally, like a child.

If the above speculation is wrong, are we then actually seeing the parameters of what's been considered as 'exceptional fighting ability' being stretched and are needing to reassess the quality of opponents below Rousey?

 

I would watch the whole fight. You are not going to get it from little GIF clips. Though they help. The entire fight was domination.

 

WMMA is just very weak in general. The skill levels are just not in any way comparable with the men's sport.

I don't remember people ever calling the 185lbs division weak because of Anderson Silva. It was one of the most stacked divisions in the UFC (being one of the middleweight divisions, that should be obvious).