I'm no expert on this or related subject, so for those who are be forgiving as far as any mistakes I make. Are any of you a bit nervous that computers will surpass humans as the number 1 species within your lifetime? Apparently computers processing ability doubles every 18 months while us humans are at a standstill (and some claim actually going downhill) . A lot of scientists much smarter than me(like Hawking) have estimated that within 50 years or less there will be computers that can math or surpass out intelligence and of course since it doubls they will be vastly superior intellectually to us within a matter of decades. Now that isn't the same as an artifical intelligence, or consciousness but once we get to the point where computer are more intelligent than us how long before they develop(or tell us how to and of course we would do it) artifial intelligence? Once again, I'm no expert but all signs seem to be pointing to humans taking a backseat to some form of AI within 100 years or less. But even 5 years from now they will be much more powerful/intelligent, already there are computers that can equal human performance in the stock market so 5-10 years from now they will be running our economy and replacing humans in all types of intellectual jobs. Your thoughts?
Computers are far beyond adding numbers. They can weigh options, perform all manner of cost-benefit analysis which is a proto decision making, and the earliest AI programs were modeled in an evolutionistic manner, where they became smarter over time, like the first checkers playing program, that over time became better at checkers than the man who designed it. The more we can start splitting up the "threading" of computers, how many different, often contradictory, options, reasons, decisions, etc. that a program can deal with and choose between, the closer we will get to replicating the way our own minds work. As both neuroscience and AI advance, we'll be able to more closely map our computers to the way our minds work. It's only a matter of time, it is only a difference of degree between computer AI and our own minds. It's really unfair to even call it artificial intelligence, as if there was some sort of unachievable "real" intelligence that cannot be understood or recreated. Computers aren't capable of the things humans are, but neither are insects - we don't say they have artificial intelligence, we just say they're stupid and less developed; no different than computers. It's actually not a steady increase, it's an exponential development. Computer technology is developing faster, and faster, and faster, fueled by that which came before it. Maybe right now it's about 18 months, but that number will continue to shrink.
I still call it artificial intelligence because even with "learning" programs we still have to create and modify the network itself: If we simply created a random network, with a set of inputs and outputs and then "taught" it how to solve problems by it's own self-evolution, then I'd call it real intelligence. i.e. like teaching rather than preforming surgery on the "brain". However the problem with that kind of computer would be unpredictable results, in the same way as the human brain. The advantage of a computer over the brain is that, being programmed rather than intelligent, you know what it's going to do every time, assuming you've got the programming right. Once the AI has learnt independantly it will start to make errors just like people's brains do.
If you interested in this subject you should watch the old Kubrick film 2001 Space Odyssey. Say hello to HAL.
lol Computers are not going to develop AI for themselves because they don't know what AI is. They are not conscious and they won't tell us what to do. The only thing which is meant by being more powerful is being able to process more information in a given time period, that doesn't introduce anything unusual or anything like AI unless we create a machine to do so. People really over exaggerate on these topics. Some asume that they will just instantly know all information and be able to dominate the world and be evil. Computers NEED information to be able to use it and take note of it, so if you don't give it the information then how is it supposed to do anything, just like a human. Unless of course it's attached to the Internet or some special uber network like Skynet from Terminator 3 :woo: However it has been predicted that within the next 50 years Scientists will be able to upload Human mind's into a computer so they can live consciously inside a machine, apparently. And another thing. The advancement of Computer speeds etc in terms of scale will slowly decrease over the coming years with the Transistor sizes becoming more and more difficult to reduce (by scale I mean the rate speeds increased through the 80's, 90's and 00's). However processing speed is going to rocket eventually with the introduction of quantum and DNA bio-cpu's, it's just a matter of time.
Well, there aren't any computers connected to the internet with evolutionary programs and a survival mechanism built in. Until that happens, I'd say we're relatively safe. Even after it happens there's only going to be a problem if we actually are stupid enough to put conscious computers in charge of weapon systems, how many nuke launching systems do you think are hooked up to the internet?
You can hang a financial newspaper up, throw darts at the ft100 and out perform so called experts in investment. AND you dont have to give a % of the stack cash to the darts every year, no matter if the money goes up or down like you do with 'experts'. Bring on the computers and free money for all I say!
My Proof: If supercomputers are ever going to reach the point where they can replace humans as the number 1 on this planet then they would have sent a cyborg back in time by now to kill us off while we are still unprepared. Nothing can beat this proof.
LilBunny just proved my point perfectly. If there was the first Artificial Intelligence computer in a top science technology lab why would they hook it up to the Internet? Unless it was designed to search and use information as it's AI but then they are just asking for trouble to be honest.
computers are good at number crunching, but thats about it They are not alive and they are not inteligent
It's an interesting topic, and one which has been covered in film and books alot, often for dramatic effect more than anything else. There are two components needed for a computer that can think like a human, processing power and programming. There are a several predictions about when computers will be the equivalent of the human brain, which is about 10^16 calculations per second, todays computers are somewhere in the field of about 10^9 cps, or somewhere between an insect and a mouse. The rate of progress is difficult to predict, mostly because it is exponential. A recent prediction that has gained popularity is Ray Kurzweil's Singularity theory, part of which estimates that we could see a computer with human-like power by about 2025, and a computer with the calculating power of all of humanity by about 2050. A likely option at the moment for this kind of power is nanotube circuitry, predictions for which state that one cubic inch of nanotube technology would be in the region of 100 million times the power of the human brain. As for the programming, likely methods would seem to point to self adapting programs, using techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic, genetic programming or hybrid intelligent systems which attempt to combine techniques. Due to the amount of code that would be required, manual coding would be out of the question, which is why a lot of work done in the field of AI focuses on learning programs. As for worrying about robots taking over, I'm all for it. They can have all our jobs, running our world for us. It would be like retirement come early for civilisation. They would be able to run the world without personal agendas and with humanity as their first priority. As has been said before, a computer with the intelligence of a human is the last thing we will ever need to invent. They won't decide to eradicate humanity as many films would like to tell us, since they won't have any reason to. Humanity will be free to do whatever it wants, free of politics, jobs and famine. It will be our utopia. Long live the robot. comaboy, BEng Robotics and Automated Systems.
Just talking to alan a computor on the link above. Might be able to get him here on this thread, not sure yet, try it it's weird. Get past the 'do you want to join forum bit' and it is OK edit: says he can but doesn't want to Very clever though
And this is the kind of thing that is said in every sci-fi movie, right before the machines develop some internal programming meltdown and kill us all. paz, dormindo
Alan, the 'putor I have been talking to says in response to my question "will you ever evolve to become a threat to humans?" "I'll cross that bridge when I come to it."
