UFC 104 predictions/discussion

[callsignfuzzy]

It's less than two weeks out! I'm excited because this will be my first UFC PPV that I get to see in my new place. I'm just glad my roommates love MMA as much as I do.

Shogun vs. Machida: I'm almost hoping for a Shogun win, just because if he can't beat Machida, I don't know who can. And it's hard to get excited about fights when you're certain your boy is going to win. With that being said, the odds are in Machida's favor. His counter-striking style is practically tailor-made for Shogun's aggressive, often wild Chute Boxe approach. He's also very difficult to take down, and while not a ground wizard, he's very good at stalling and avoiding damage on the ground. On his side, Shogun showed more disciplined striking in his last fight, and is a more dynamic striker than anyone Machida has faced recently. He's equaly adept at strikes and takedowns from the clinch, and is far more aggressive on the ground. His dynamic style might make even a strategist like Machida second-guess his intentions. The biggest question mark is Shogun's cardio: once legendary, it's failed him in two out of his last three fights, with the Liddell fight not progressing enough to definitively indicate if Shogun is really "back", conditioning-wise. I'm going to call this one for Machida by UD, although I think he'll have some close calls early on.

Ben Rothwell vs. Cain Velasquez: I'm leaning towards Cain on this one. His striking is sharper and his wrestling's better. Rothwell was ranked in the top ten during his IFL run, and hits hard, but I just think Cain is fresher and sharper. Velasquez by TKO, R2

Josh Neer vs. Gleison Tibau: these guys are both huge LW fighters, and both are coming off of a loss. Neer is always a scrapper, and has gotten some submissions from his back; Tibau is much better in a top position. I'm giving this one tentatively to Tibau by UD, if he can keep Neer on the ground.

Spencer Fisher vs. Joe Stevenson: I love watching Fisher fight. His striking is very technical and dynamic. He really doesn't have much in the way of takedown defense, however, and Stevenson is built like a gorilla. Stevenson loses fights when he tries to stand and strike, but his time with Greg Jackson seems to have remedied that. Fisher will no doubt look for subs on the ground, but Stevenson is too good and too strong to get caught. I think Joe Daddy will take the decission, but if Fisher leaves his head out in a scramble, he'll get caught in the Guillotine of Doom (TM).

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida: does Joe Silva hate Yoshida? Less than a year after his brutal KO loss to Josh Koscheck, he faces another explosive, hard-hitting wrestler in Anthony Johnson. As long as it stays on the feet, it's a KO waiting to happen. Yoshida's best chance is to get it to the ground in order to use his submission skills. He might do it... maybe... but this matchup has "highlight reel knockout" written all over it. Johnson has been known to gas out in the past, but with months to prepare and with a solid training camp, I just don't see that happening. Johnson, KO, R2.

Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer: Bader is coming along nicely, with some great technical wrestling and strong punches on the feet and mat. Schafer is a crafty submission specialist who's probably a little undersized and underpowered for this division. That places the odds in Bader's favor. However, I'm going to bet on the underdog and say that Eric the Red catches Bader with a submission near the end of R1. The odds are against it, I just think his experience will give him the win.

Chase Gormley vs. Stephan Struve: I've never seen Gormley, who's 6-0 and making his UFC debut, and have only seen Struve once, when he lost to Junior Dos Santos. Struve is lanky and possibly light enough to cut to LHW; most of his wins are by submission. Gormley appears to be much thicker and is split 2/2/2 with his wins by decission, TKO, and submission. Given Struve's experience, length, and the fact that any "Octagon jitters" should be out of the way by now, I'm predicting a win for him, probably by submission in the first.

Patrick Barry vs. Antoni Hardonk: this one should be fun to watch. Both guys have a penchant for striking (seeing them fight, I wonder if they get on the grappling mats at all), and both are coming off of loses. Hardonk has a decided mass, reach, and experience advantage. Basically, this comes down to picking either the guy who lost to Frank Mir and Cheik Kongo, or the guy who lost to... Tim Hague. This one will end in KO. Hardonk, R3.

Jorge Rivera vs. Rob Kimmons: I want Rivera to win so badly. He's basically a working stiff who can't seem to catch a break. He even had to deal with the death of one of his children a few years ago. But he just doesn't seem to have the tools to move on to the next level. While Kimmons should theoretically have more wear and tear on his body, most of his fights have ended in under three minutes. I'm expecting him to get a UD.

Kyle Kingsberry vs. Razak Al-Hassan: Al-Hassan was most recently seen gettin his arm broken by Steve Cantwell a "Fight for the Troops". His ground game in that fight looked virtually non-existant. His striking, though, was unorthodox. Both he and Kingsberry are coming off of loses. If Kingsberry is smart, he'll shoot, secure mount, and go for an arm bar. Having your limb snapped has got to make you a little nervous of finding yourself in a similar position again. Given Kyle's style, however, I'd expect more of a ground-and-pound finish. Kingsberry, TKO, R1.

[d0ugbug]

I was going to have a go at making my first predictions here on MAP but seems as I aint going to be watching this one I'm saving my self for the 14th and 21st of Nov instead! :)

[Mitlov]

I predict Machida KOs Shogun in Round 2 with a hadouken, and then relaxes with a frothy mug of pee-pee.

[Pitfighter]

I'm only goina give predictions for the fighters I know about.

Machida will take it. Prolly with a counter punch in the 2nd round. Shogun's standup is goina be minced up by Machida. Machida's takedown defence is too good for Shogun. It just isn't happening. I don't think Machida is invincible but I do think he has all the tools to beat Shogun and I don't think Shogun has what it takes to beat Machida.

Cain Velasquez will beat Ben Rothwell. Never been super impressed with Ben he's good but I don't think he beat the best. Cain Velasquez will prolly win with G&P. Rothwell's standup is fairly good so I think Cain will have to take'm down to win.

Bader will beat Shafer. Shafer is the TUF killer but I see a lot of potential in Bader. I think he actually won his first TUF fight by submission and he doesn't even know jujitsu. He knocked out that other dude I forget his name and Bader supposedly doesn't know stand up either. Bader is definitely a solid wrestler but more importantly he's got good instincts and seems like a quick study. He needs to practice but he seems to have the right stuff.

[Mitlov]

What the hell? Rua got robbed. I'm a huge Machida fan, but come on, Rua got robbed. I have no idea how the judges scored that to say that Machida won.

[slipthejab]

I predict Machida KOs Shogun in Round 2 with a hadouken, and then relaxes with a frothy mug of pee-pee.

comedy gold that.

[Infrazael]

Corruption all the way. To the very core.

If I was dictator of the world I would have those people executed slowly and painfully to be made examples of.

[Mr. O]

im with mitlov, Shogun dominated that fight in almost if not every round! Machida couldnt answer back at all!

and my god Gleison Tibau's takedowns were awesome!

[slipthejab]

What the hell? Rua got robbed. I'm a huge Machida fan, but come on, Rua got robbed. I have no idea how the judges scored that to say that Machida won.

Well I have to agree... I like Machida... but he took a beating.

His corner was delusional. How is being body kicked repeatedly 'doing good'?!?! Unbelievable that they thought he was winning this. He simply had no response for the majority of the kicks. Anything he landed was normally countered big style.

Machida was limping not Rua.
Machida was being elbowed in the head at every separation of the clinch.
Machida couldn't answer back for 90% of the kicks Rua landed.

sheesh... and I'm only at the start of the fifth round. The best thing Machida has this time out was knees which Rua practically threw himself onto.

The judging was a joke here. Absolute joke.

[slipthejab]

ok there is only one word applicable here.

ROBBERY.

well maybe two....

TRAVESTY.

wow. just wow. I'm trying to recall such poor judging ever. EVER!!!!!

someone on another forum said 'Even Helen Keller could have seen who won that fight!!!'

[Mr. O]

it is, you can even see the look on his face (apart from the cuts, welts and bruises) he knew he lost that!

[Southpaw535]

I dont watch anywhere enough ufc to be a judge but
WTF? Credit where it's due to Machida he landed some nice knees but he was outclassed he had nothing against those kicks. I would have hated to give an actual score for that fight but for them to say Machida won...... No way.
Also I've only seen shogun fight twice and Silva's fight against Forrest so would Rogan's idea of them two fighting be a good fight?

[callsignfuzzy]

Review: the Barry-Hardonk match started us off. Hardonk made good progress early in the first with leg kicks, but at one point dropped to a knee as if to shoot for a takedown. Barry ended up on top and started dropping punches, one of which bloodied Hardonk's nose. Watching these two grapple was giving me flashbacks to UFC 8 or so, because neither really seemed to know what to do, but once it got back to the feet it was clear that Hardonk had been taken out of the game. Barry finished it in the second by dropping Hardonk with punches and then following up with a wicked standing punch to a grounded Hardonk.

We got to see the Strouve-Gormley match next. The only real offense Gormley scored was a takedown, but even then Strouve used his length to keep him from scoring any ground-and-pound. This fight was mostly Strouve out-grappling Gormley, picking up the win late in the first with a rolling triangle from mount.

Schaffer-Bader was next. This was a nice fight. Bader came out strong, dropping Schaffer with punches and following up with the same on the ground. They would have finished a lesser fighter, but to his credit, Schaffer weathered the storm and came back strong in the second. He used his jab to keep Bader at bay; Bader, for his part, had gassed after the first and was throwing wild and sporadically. The third went to Bader as he dropped Schaffer with a punch, though again Schaffer hung tough. Bader got the win but got a bit exposed; Schaffer lost, but showed how tough and composed he is.

The first PPV fight saw Anthony "Rumble" Johnson face off against Judoka Yoshiyuki Yoshida, who walked out with Greg Jackson in his corner. I guess Jackson is cornering someone in every fight now. Anyway, Johnson came in 6lbs overweight, but didn't have time to gas out, as he put away Yoshida with punches in about 45 seconds. I like Yoshida. Hope he doesn't get cut.

Fisher vs. Stevenson was up next. Joe "Daddy" initially tried to stand with Fisher, and even cut him, but Fisher was showing much-improved takedown defense and was landing hard shots of his own, including some harsh leg kicks. In the second, Stevenson smarted up and finally got his takedown, then laid in some vicious elbows from the crucifix position, prompting Fisher to tap out with his foot.

We also got to see the Sonnen-Okami fight, which was all Sonnen. He showed improved striking in addition to his Olympic-level wrestling, and mixed the two nicely. While Okami never looked damaged, he didn't have an answer for any of Sonnen's offense; the Team Quest fighter got the decision. Okami has ranked in the top ten for a while; by beating him, Sonnen has upped his worth. I'd blame part of Okami's performance on ring rust, and would like to see him get another fight soon.

The Tibau-Neer fight was pretty much the same story for all three rounds: Tibau goes for a HUGE takedown, Neer scrambles up and lands some awkward-looking strikes before getting taken down again. Credit to Neer for never mentally breaking, and not letting Tibau get a good position on the ground. Neer really needs to get technical with his striking, though. Good fight.

Valasquez vs. Rothwell was completely one-sided. Cain was all over him like (for "white on rice", press 1; for "stink on crap", press 2; for "a fat kid on a jelly doughnut", press 3). He landed some hard shots on the feet, then executed some nice technical takedowns and laid in the ground-and-pound. Rothwell, for his part, apparently assumed that remaining expressionless while getting punched in the face was a valid demonstration of "intelligent defense". Steve Mazzagatti disagreed, and stopped the fight early in the second.

By all appearances, Mauricio Rua solved the Machida riddle. He stayed patient, landed kicks to the leg and body, kept his hands up and blocked most of the punches thrown at him, pressed the action without over-extending himself, and initiated the clinches. As a spectator, I was very happy with the fight; as a fan, I was outraged at the result. I could see maybe the third for Machida based solely on his flurry at the end of that round, although I think Shogun still probably took it based on his overall control of that round. But outside of that, it was all Shogun. I checked the Fightmetric scores first thing this morning, and they had R2 to Machida, with a close R3:

http://www.fightmetric.com/fights/Machida-Shogun.html

Luckily, according Dana White at the post-fight press conference, both fighters have verbally agreed to rematch immediately:

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Machida-Rua-Agree-to-Immediate-Rematch-20544

Machida did not perform as I expected him to, and I would hope he'd do better in a rematch, but more than that, I'm upset that Rua isn't wearing gold right now.

Shady stuff happens the most in California.

[callsignfuzzy]

Southpaw, check out Shogun's fights in Pride, especially his matches with Arona, Randleman, and Nogueira. The guy was, for years, considered the #1 fighter at 205lbs. The only reason he didn't get a shot at the Pride title was because his friend and training partner Wanderlei had it.

A fight between A. Silva and Rua would be great. Both Muay Thai specialists with TKD moves thrown in; both BJJ black belts; both extremely athletic with good killer instinct. It'd definitely worth the price of a PPV.

[aaron_mag]

Don't forget Shogun is also A. Silva's former training partner (both former Chute Box). They would know each other's styles very very well.

I was torn in the Shogun/Machida matchup. I've actually been a Shogun fan longer, but knee injuries really took their toll on him in UFC. In Pride...man he had some exciting bouts!

[Southpaw535]

Southpaw, check out Shogun's fights in Pride, especially his matches with Arona, Randleman, and Nogueira. The guy was, for years, considered the #1 fighter at 205lbs. The only reason he didn't get a shot at the Pride title was because his friend and training partner Wanderlei had it.

A fight between A. Silva and Rua would be great. Both Muay Thai specialists with TKD moves thrown in; both BJJ black belts; both extremely athletic with good killer instinct. It'd definitely worth the price of a PPV.
Thanks I'll do that.

[B3astfrmthe3ast]

I wonder Who got paid to mess up shoguns fight. but lets look at the facts Machida took more kicks than a soccer ball but Im sure his Very very sore if not broken ribs and beet red legs will let him know without a shadow of a doubt that he really lost to shogun but I was HIGHLY impressed with shogun he came out in true TRADITIONAL Muay thai fashion and damaged the hell out of machida but no matter what anyone says HATS OFF TO SHOGUN

[Southpaw535]

Except now Shogun needs a new gameplan for the rematch. His approach was quality but you know Machida's gonna be training hard against that now.

[Mitlov]

The one kind of fun thing about Machida v. Rua is that you had two TMAists fighting in pretty orthodox ways for their respective styles, battling it out in essentially a stand-up fight. Yeah, Machida has studied a lot more than Shotokan karate, but he fought in a very textbook, old-school style for karate. Likewise, Rua has studied a lot more than Muay Thai, but his stance, his strategy, was very classic Muay Thai, not generic-MMA-kickboxing or something like that.

I almost felt like I was watching something out of the Street Fighter games, with a Ryu Hayabusa v. Sagat match or something.

I'm not saying that this fight proves "Muay Thai beats Shotokan karate" or anything like that, but it's fun to watch two people from different core arts when their core arts shine through as strongly as they did in Machida v. Rua.

[Mitlov]

I wonder Who got paid to **** up shoguns fight. but lets look at the facts Machida took more kicks than a soccer ball but Im sure his Very very sore if not broken ribs and beet red legs will let him know without a shadow of a doubt that he really lost to shogun but I was HIGHLY impressed with shogun he came out in true TRADITIONAL Muay thai fashion and damaged the hell out of machida but no matter what anyone says HATS OFF TO SHOGUN

No matter what anyone says? Has ANYONE, besides those three judges, said that Machida should have won that decision? From sports commentators to internet posters to the crowd at the event, everyone seems to unanimously agree that Rua won that fight.

[Fish Of Doom]

i am of the opinion that machida fought in a very non-smart way, and did not take a lot of opportunities he could have taken.

either that or he knew the fight was fixed and was just trying to not get wtfpwned by rua before the decision win, and got hit more than he expected to.

[Southpaw535]

either that or he knew the fight was fixed and was just trying to not get wtfpwned by rua
hmm deja vu

I almost felt like I was watching something out of the Street Fighter games, with a Ryu Hayabusa v. Sagat match or something
Heh that was exactly how i felt and it was real fun to watch I agree

[callsignfuzzy]

OK, I was being nice, the the policy is to use spoiler tags until 24 hours after the event. Any post containing spoilers before that period will be deleted, as is MAP policy; I've just been feeling nice today.

[B3astfrmthe3ast]

you are right mitlov i was just throwing that out there because there are Machida fans out there who think he should still be champ. but i also agree with the whole two TMAist doing there thing for their respective arts and +1 with the whole ryu hyabusa v sagat but if its street fighter it would have to be Ryu v sagat and if it is dead or alive it would be ryu hyabusa v Zack (the muay thai character from DOA) Just throwing some fun Video game junk at ya but i tottaly agree nonetheless lol

[aaron_mag]

There is more to Rua than meets the eye. He has a Capoeira background lurking back there as well. In his early Pride matches he throws some jumping combos and such. Don't get me wrong. He is well versed in MMA, MT, and BJJ. He has a good takedown as well. But one of the things that was so exciting about him is he'd whip out some jump spinny kick out of nowhere back in Pride.

[Mitlov]

There is more to Rua than meets the eye. He has a Capoeira background lurking back there as well. In his early Pride matches he throws some jumping combos and such. Don't get me wrong. He is well versed in MMA, MT, and BJJ. He has a good takedown as well. But one of the things that was so exciting about him is he'd whip out some jump spinny kick out of nowhere back in Pride.

Not denying that, but we didn't see anything like that at UFC 104. He was very much orthodox Muay Thai except for one or two single-leg takedown attempts.

[callsignfuzzy]

Just some interesting stats from the two main stat-providers for MMA. They didn't have exactly the same numbers, likely owing to the human factor as well as poor camera angles, etc. Also, they run their stats a bit differently. Fightmetric just scores what part of the body was struck, while Computstrike shows the number of punches, kicks, etc. that landed. Anyway...

Total:
Compustrike (CS):
Machida landed 50/105 strikes, or 48%, Rua landed 89/155 strikes, or 57%
Rua was 0/3 for takedown attempts
Fightmetric (FM):
Machida landed 42 strikes; Rua landed 82 strikes
Rua was 0/4 for takedown attempts

R1
CS:
Machida: 10 strikes
Rua: 17 strikes, 1 TD attempt
FM:
Machida: 11 strikes
Rua: 19 strikes, 1 TD attempt

R2:
CS:
Machida: 11 strikes
Rua: 23 strikes, 1 TD attempt
FM:
Machida: 7 strikes
Rua: 21 strikes, 1 TD attempt

R3:
CS:
Machida: 15 strikes
Rua: 19 strikes
FM:
Machida: 15 strikes
Rua: 19 strikes, 1 TD attempt

R4:
CS:
Machida: 7 strikes
Rua: 13 strikes, 1 TD attempt
FM:
Machida: 3 strikes
Rua: 10 strikes, 1 TD attempt

R5:
CS:
Machida: 7 strikes
Rua: 13 strikes
FM:
Machida: 6 strikes
Rua: 13 strikes.

I'd like to note that, as a counter-argument to the idea that Machida was trying to finish rather than just batter the legs and body, according to Fightmetric, Machida only landed more head shots in rounds 2 and 3 (2/10:1/7 and 9/22:6/18, respectively). That, and the fact that leg and body kicks have, indeed, ended fights before.

I'm looking forward to the rematch. I expect Machida to have a better game plan, and for Shogun to be more aggressive.

Edit: sources-

http://compustrike.com/stats_files/ufc_104/MacHida-Rua.HTM

http://www.fightmetric.com/fights/Machida-Shogun.html

[Infrazael]

SHOGUN GOT ROBBED.

I want those judges skinned alive then have salt poured onto them.

[nicolethai1]

Only just got round to watching the fight yesterday.

I've truly never seen such a bad decision. Shogun won that hands down. It's got to be a fix...how otherwise could all 3 judges have scored the same? Ther's no way that could be justified. Arguably Machida won one round at best, but I wouldn't even have given him that.

It was great watching Shogun use such classic MT techniques...not often seen in the Octagon. In particular his stance and his masterly use of low and inside leg kicks, as well as to the body. Congratulations Shogun...you got the belt in all but name!