UFC 63 Fight Predictions

[Apotheosis]

Event is tomorrow with the headliner being Penn vs Hughes.

I won't be purchasing the event but will of course find a way to see the good fights via internet as I am unexcited about the card in general.

FightCard- Source (http://www.ufc.com/index.cfm?fa=EventDetail.fightCard&eid=206)

Matt Hughes vs BJ Penn
Mike Swick vs David Loiseau
Jason Laber vs Rashad Evans
Joe Lauzon vs Jens Pulver
Gabe Ruediger Vs. Melvin Guillard
Roger Huerta Vs. Jason Dent
Mario Neto Vs. Eddie Sanchez
Danny Abbadi Vs. Jorge Gurgel
David Lee Vs. Tyson Griffin

My picks

Hughes
Swick
Evans
Pulver
Melvin
Huerta
Sanchez
Abbadi...just joking I will go with Gurgel
Griffen

So will Penn take the belt back?

[gornex]

yeah, i would have to agree with all of your pics, i can't wait to see danny get beat up, i dislike that guy.

[Sever]

Hughes by decision. Penn looks to be in good shape and could well still take it
Louiseau by TKO (probably caused by cut)
Evans by yawnfest
Pulver by KO. He REALLY should be fighting for the title, not Florian
Guillard, probably by TKO. Don't really care about this fight either
Huerta by TKO probably
Neto since Sanchez is a replacement that got pulled in this week in place of Gabriel Gonzaga and has only been pro for a year (the UFC page is padding his record too). I'm glad this one's on the undercard
If Gurgel can't beat Abbadi - a guy with ONE pro fight at the TUF finale, his listed record is amateur :eek: - he needs to quit fighting. Gurgel by whatever he wants
Griffin by TKO

If I had to pay extra to see this event, I wouldn't order it. There are only three fights I'm interested in seeing and I'd say it's most likely that only one of them will make it out of the first round (and that could very well end quickly)

[stump]

Here's mine...

The top two fights could really go either way. Aside form that the only fight i'm interested in is Pulvers...considering how little they pay the fighters overall they could put more big names on shows - even if that meant fewer shows overall

Hughes v Penn - Hughes TKO
Swick v Loiseau - Loiseau TKO
Lambert v Evans - Lambert KO
Lauzon v Pulver - Pulver KO
Ruediger v Guillard - Rudiger Sub
Huerta v Dent - Huerta Decision
Neto v Sanchez - Neto Decision
Abbdi v Gurgal - Gurgal Sub
Lee v Griffin - Griffin TKO

[illegal entry]

Penn by Sub

A country boy can get choked. :rolleyes:

Although I'm honestly disgusted they put Abbadi up for a fight, I mean, Abbadi gets a fight but Bisping haven't had a fight since he won, and Kendall is having 1 fight (10th Oct) in the Ultimate Fight Night crap where they usualy match the winners against cans.. But no, lets put a guy with a 0-2 record who haven't won a single fight, in the UFC. Way to go.

[Sever]

Although I'm honestly disgusted they put Abbadi up for a fight, I mean, Abbadi gets a fight but Bisping haven't had a fight since he won, and Kendall is having 1 fight (10th Oct) in the Ultimate Fight Night crap where they usualy match the winners against cans.. But no, lets put a guy with a 0-2 record who haven't won a single fight, in the UFC. Way to go.I agree. Abbadi hasn't won ANY fights that he's been paid for, both his wins were amateur and he's only 2-1 at that level. His pro record is 0-1 and that loss came at the finale against Kaleb Starnes :eek: This guy shouldn't have even been on TUF since he wasn't a pro fighter and he certainly has no business at a real UFC event. Still, Gurgel could do with a win
As for Bisping, to be fair to the UFC, he hasn't had a fight yet due to an injury he got in training. I believe he's fighting at 65, but the opponent's not been named yet

[Linguo]

I agree. Abbadi hasn't won ANY fights that he's been paid for, both his wins were amateur and he's only 2-1 at that level. His pro record is 0-1 and that loss came at the finale against Kaleb Starnes :eek: This guy shouldn't have even been on TUF since he wasn't a pro fighter and he certainly has no business at a real UFC event. Still, Gurgel could do with a win
As for Bisping, to be fair to the UFC, he hasn't had a fight yet due to an injury he got in training. I believe he's fighting at 65, but the opponent's not been named yet


I think they just wanted to give Gurgel an easy win, maybe remind people about who Gurgel is since it has been a while since we've seen him fight.

[Apotheosis]

Yea that is most likely the case, they want to give Gurgel a win and Abbadi is the best way to ensure it.

Plus, maybe he will surprise the world and KO urgel in devestating fashion(I would love to see that).

[illegal entry]

I agree. Abbadi hasn't won ANY fights that he's been paid for, both his wins were amateur and he's only 2-1 at that level. His pro record is 0-1 and that loss came at the finale against Kaleb Starnes :eek: This guy shouldn't have even been on TUF since he wasn't a pro fighter and he certainly has no business at a real UFC event. Still, Gurgel could do with a win
As for Bisping, to be fair to the UFC, he hasn't had a fight yet due to an injury he got in training. I believe he's fighting at 65, but the opponent's not been named yet

The fight he lost against Ed Herman in TUF doesn't count as a professional bout? Or he didn't get paid for that? I was under the impression that knockout wins was a BONUS unto what they already got, but maybe that's the only money they could get.

Anyway, regardless, thanks for the heads up on Bisping, had no idea he was injured.

[Apotheosis]

I want to first say I have yet to actually see any fights and am going by sherdogs pbp

Tyson Griffen beats David Lee via rear naked choke in 1:50 into the 1st round

Big surprise here-
Danny Abbadi vs Jorge Gurgel goes 3 rounds where Jorge gets the split decision.
Apparently Abbadi actually did fairly well winning the first round and getting a knockdown


Mario Neto vs. Eddie Sanchez - Sanchez wins via KO 17 seconds into Round 2.

Jason Dent vs. Roger Huerta -Fight goes to a decision in which Huerta wins unanimously 30-27.

GIANT SURPRISE
Joe Lauzon vs. Jens Pulver -Lauzon wins via KO in 48 seconds(also heard 70 seconds) in the first round. Thats right, Pulver gets knocked out by a grappler oriented fighter in the first minute of the first round.


Jason Lambert vs. Rashad Evans -Rashad displays a takedown clinic, apparently taking Lambert down at will.
Round 2 Evans takes him down and finishes him via KO from the mount at the 2:22 mark


Gabe Ruediger vs. Melvin Guillard- Guillard wins via TKO 1:01 into the second round.


Mike Swick vs. David Loiseau - Swick takes the first round easily, taunts the Crow at the beginning of Round 2(dissapointing but not sure what he did) Swick takes round 2 as well.
Round 3- The crow takes this round 10-9 so it goes to decision- Swick wins 29-28 on all three judges cards.

Matt Hughes vs. B.J. Penn -

Round 1 goes to Penn after a lot of striking, and an accidental eye poke to Hughes

Round 2- Hughes gets a takdeown but Penn sweeps and gets his back. Nearly gets a triangle from the back but Hiughes escapes just before the round ends. Sherdog gives this around to Penn as well 10-9.

Round 3- Hughes lands a couple huge punches that rock Penn. Hughes takes him down passes to half guard. Hughes gets side mount, traps Penns left arm, and pounds away on Penn until Big John steps in to end the fight giving the win to Matt Hughes via TKO at 3:53 in the 3rd round.

Apparently round 3 was all Hughes while Penn managed to win the first two rounds which makes me wonder if Penn gassed in the third. Won't know until I see the video but seems odd for Penn to be winning 2 rounds and then get dominated the entire 3rd.

Wonder if he will still call himself the champ?

Bottom Line- Hughes wins, Swick wins and should be the number 1 contender, and Pulver is shocked.

Edit- Went to the sherdog forum which admittedly is a bit suspect as far as information goes but the basic trend seems to be that Penn gassed in round 3 and if he had better cardio he would not have lost. Not to take anything away from Hughes, but it appears Penn had the fight in hand until he ran out of gas. Maybe he could dominate back in the day without greta cardio due to his skill but now he needs his cardio to maintain his skill or he will keep losing against GSP, Hughes, Sherk etc...and I hope this is a wake up call to him, he could argue his loss against GSP but he cannot argue this.

[Apotheosis]

The fight he lost against Ed Herman in TUF doesn't count as a professional bout? Or he didn't get paid for that? I was under the impression that knockout wins was a BONUS unto what they already got, but maybe that's the only money they could get.

Anyway, regardless, thanks for the heads up on Bisping, had no idea he was injured.

Pretty sure they are exhibition fights so the fights don't count on the record.

Not sure but I believe they made them exhibitions because otherwise the NASC requires the results to be posted within 24 hours of the fight which would obviously spoil the show.

[Snake+CQC]

Man, I wish the recorded version of the fight was on the internet already. :bang:


Haha, I'm so cheap sometimes...

[Topher]

It's on Bravo tonight at 11.

[Apotheosis]

Just watched the fight, and I have to say I am pretty impressed with Penn's talent. I hope Matt Hughes pounded into his head that he needs better cardio, because that is what is keeping him from being the best. He is like Michael Jordan without the work ethic, a great talent but if he isn't willing to train like the other fighters are then he will keep losing. After this fight, I see GSP taking the belt as I think hehas much better cardio than Penn and has shown he has nearly equal talent.

So when that fight comes along, I see GSP winning however I want to note that Hughes really impressed me not so much with his ability(I obviously think Penn has better talent) but with his heart and cardio. He took a beating for 2 rounds and came out and dominated the 3rd.

I hope Penn learns his lesson since this fight he got finished and cannot argue it as opposed to vs GSP when it went to decision. If he wants to keep fighting and plans on winning he really needs to workout harder/better but I'm not sure if he is willing to put the work into it.

He said it best" If it isn't fun, I won't do it" when discussing cardio training.

I hope he decides getting pounded in the head is even worse than running.

Anyways was good fight, I hate how the UFC is trying to go pro-wrestling with their "feuds" making good guys like GSP disrespect another good guy simply for ratings. :woo:

[Linguo]

I thought RD1 of Hughes vs. Penn was very close, with Penn edging it out by virtue of more landed shots. Nothing that demonstrated dominance, but Penn still won it in my mind. RD2 was actually Hughes' until Penn slickly took Hughes back and nearly finished him with a triangle/armbar combination. Penn spent way to much energy on that submission attempt, which Hughes was able to escape seconds before the round finished. Penn could barely walk in RD 3, and Hughes could see it.

I think the issue isn't so much Penn's lack of cardio, but his inability to use it properly. He puts all he's got into trying to finish early (like the RD 2 submission attempt, and if he doesn't put the opponent away early, he's already wasted so much energy trying.

[SouL]

I cant belive penn lost hes the better fighter by far his cardio killed him. He took the first 2 rounds easily great takedown defense and reduced matt hughes to having to stand up with him. Amazing skill to get backward mount when he was on his back. Again his cardio prevented him from finishing matt hughes and it hurt seeing him just stand their and get pummeled due to lack of cardio.

Matt hughes can sure take a beating though and is an incredible athlete and had good heart to come back althouhg i think any fighter could of beaten penn in the state he was in rnd 3. Hope this isnt the end for bj penn and he comes back stronger i really think hes one of the most talented exciting fighters around and it would be a shame if he didnt step up on his training.

I dont think penn wasted excess energy to be honest i think they both kept up the pace, obviously going for the subb was energy consuming but was worth it with 1 min to go. I hope st piere beats hughes although i dont think he can since he lacks bj penns skill on his back and matt hughes is incredibly difficult to knock out and has improving stand up. Anyway :cry: :cry:

[Apotheosis]

Your correct, there was no dominance in the fight which I learned after watching it. However Penn was winning the first round and defintely the 2nd since he almost won the fight.I still think his cardio was the difference, he didn't "waste" his energy going for the sub anymore than Hughes was "wasting" his energy going for takedowns.

He no doubt did expend a great amount of energy on that sub attemot but even if he had not I have no doubt he would have gassed in round 4 or 5. He had a chance to finish Hughes and went for it like he or any other fighter is supposed to do, Hughes just has a ton of heart and would not tap.

Still think Penn would have won if he had better cardio, however cardio is a big part of the game so we cannot take anything away from Hughes

[Jon Wilde]

I can't believe everybody had Lauzon losing by KO. With the sponsor he had, how could he lose? :D

[illegal entry]

The fact is Penn got injured, he didn't gas. Well, maybe somewhat, but he didn't lose because of that.

Sherdog Interview (http://www.sherdog.net/forums/showthread.php?threadid=434192)

You try fighting Matt Hughes with a hurt rib.

[SouL]

Thks for the post man feel better now :D kind of. Does make sense though he was in alot of pain when he had matts back you could see it in his face i just assumed he was tired. Maybe he went to fast for his own good as he got back mount, ive never seen anyone except rickson get backward mount so fast. Good idea though waiting for the elbow then going for back mount dont think anyone but bj could of kept that position though his legs are just mad flexible.

[Apotheosis]

I heard the same thing, but let's be honest...How credible is BJ? A lot of people will make up injuries as an excuse and as far as I know we have no reason to believe BJ is not one of them.


As to Rickson, do we have to bring his name up...

[Sever]

We have no reason NOT to believe Penn either. He's posted it on his official website (here (http://www.bjpenn.com/index.php)) too
To be honest, he did look hurt rather than gassed to me. When Hughes passed his guard in the third, he had no hip movement, nothing. No one gets past BJ Penn's guard that easily unless something's not right - hell, I can't remember the last time someone passed his guard at all, regardless of how tired he may or may not have been. That said, gotta give all credit to Hughes on this one, he showed tons of heart not tapping to that triangle in the second
It's aired everywhere now, we can kill the spoiler tags

[Apotheosis]

Your right, we have no reason to not believe him I guess I am just a little cynical sometimes.

You make a great point about his guard, it was almost nonexistant and when you compare it to when he fought GSP and was gassed it looks much worse.

Anyways I hope he gets that fixed up and comes back with a passion.

[Cloud9]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ltbm83WKJA

[SouL]

Whats wrong with mentioning rickson hes a great grappler no one debates that fact. Anyway he was gassed vs gsp in the last round but he still was fighting even at the end of the fight he was trying for a submission. Gsp didnt dominate bj and never looked like hed win outright at any stage althouhg i still think he won simly due to having more takedowns which bj half assed defended as he had no problem being on his back.

Against matt he was getting beaten like a dog stand up and ground, where as in round 2 matt didnt even get close to breaking bjs guard and if u look at matt hughes face after round 2 hes got the man how do i beat this guy what have i gotten myself into look going on :D.

[Apotheosis]

I don't even want to debate Rickson so I will make 1 final comment- We have no idea he is great, we hear he is but we hear a lot of things.

I think GSP can take Hughes out, and I think Penn is going to have a long route back to a title shot.

This is the list as I see it..
1.GSP(obviously)
2. It will be either Hughes if he loses or the WW winner of TUF 4 if Hughes wins
3.Diego Sanchez
4. Penn

I hope he comes back with a passion and we see him fight for the belt in a year or 2.

[Snake+CQC]

I don't understand the BJ Penn fans. They think he's God! "He broke his rib during the fight, and that's why he didn't win!" It's part of the fight! Plus Hughes has much better cardio. And who pulled out the win? HUGHES!

[Kwan Jang]

It's because there is a difference between having your opponent crack your rib in a fight and the cartillidge seperating. One is Matt doing the damage to BJ, the other is a fluke injury. What makes it sad is that until it happened, BJ was the dominant fighter and seemed to be in control of the fight. Matt Hughes won the fight without any doubt and BJ was the first to give him the proper credit in the post-fight interview, however the injury does factor into the propects of a rematch. Also, based on this information and the relative performance of both fighters, I could see BJ being the actual favorite in said "rubbermatch".

[Apotheosis]

I don't understand the BJ Penn fans. They think he's God! "He broke his rib during the fight, and that's why he didn't win!" It's part of the fight! Plus Hughes has much better cardio. And who pulled out the win? HUGHES!


I like Penn, and I would like to see him win.

I do give Hughes credit, he is the champ and has not lost in 20 or so fights...

However, Penn looked like he had more talent and looked to be the better fighter that night.

An analogy would be- If I and Hughes were in a fight, he slipped and broke his leg and I pounced on him..would that impress you?

Not saying that is what happened, or that it was that drastic, simply that until Penn got hurt he was in the elad by a fair amount.

[ED-209]

I can't believe BJ gassed......

Especially as he had appointed a special choice cardio coach for this fight...

Frank Mir :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

[Rapid]

Whats wrong with mentioning rickson hes a great grappler no one debates that fact. Anyway he was gassed vs gsp in the last round but he still was fighting even at the end of the fight he was trying for a submission. Gsp didnt dominate bj and never looked like hed win outright at any stage althouhg i still think he won simly due to having more takedowns which bj half assed defended as he had no problem being on his back.

Against matt he was getting beaten like a dog stand up and ground, where as in round 2 matt didnt even get close to breaking bjs guard and if u look at matt hughes face after round 2 hes got the man how do i beat this guy what have i gotten myself into look going on :D.

You must be mad to think Matt was winning the striking, he was getting a bad beating, Penn hit him very hard alot of times, his face was really red and slightly bruised

[Snake+CQC]

I like Penn, and I would like to see him win.

I do give Hughes credit, he is the champ and has not lost in 20 or so fights...

However, Penn looked like he had more talent and looked to be the better fighter that night.

An analogy would be- If I and Hughes were in a fight, he slipped and broke his leg and I pounced on him..would that impress you?

Not saying that is what happened, or that it was that drastic, simply that until Penn got hurt he was in the elad by a fair amount.

That's a good point. However, I guess I believe that was Hughes' game plan. He knows, himself, that he has better cardio than most. Anyways, I forgot to say before in my rant. Props to BJ for a great fight.

[SouL]

You must be mad to think Matt was winning the striking, he was getting a bad beating, Penn hit him very hard alot of times, his face was really red and slightly bruised

What i meant was in round 3. Your right matt did take a beating in first one even smiled after getting hit by a right hand by bj lol althouhg i was still impressed with the improvment in his stand up. He was throwing some right wild ones good job bj was fast on his feet to aviod them.

I agree with the guys here that if the injury was a fluke then rematch is possible not to mention the fact that its 1-1 and was an exciting fight. I suppose in the meantime we have to watch bj beat on diego and co :D