Free Will

[killbill]

I don't know if anyone's heard of this before, it is facsinating IMO

you encounter a strange being in the forest. He has 2 boxes in front of him, he tells you that either box A has 1 million dolars or nothing, box B has 1000 dollars. you can pick A, B, or both. heres the catch, he says that he is psychic and looked ahead and saw your choice. If you picked A he put the million dollars in it, if you picked B or both, he put nothing in A. BUT the boxes are physically in front of you here and now, and nothing he can do now will change what is in them. assuming he is telling the truth, What do you pick?

:confused:

[Shaolin Dragon]

Assuming he told me the truth, I will pick box A, as he already knows that is the box I will choose and so must have put 1 million dollars in it. That is assuming that in the future he predicted he told me about this?

[blackbelt_judoj]

Ok. Seriously. Lets look at the facts here: :woo:

I don't know this person

He has a shed load of cash on him

I'm in the middle of a forest with no witnesses

Lets face it. This guy deserves to be relieved of his money. I think a quick choke out may be in order here!!! LOL

[LilBunnyRabbit]

Open box A, if its got the money in it then I'll open box B, otherwise I'll leave box B closed. Would be fun to see if his head exploded.

[Saz]

Throw box B at his head, and run off with the money in box A.

[JohnnyX]

Assuming he is telling the truth, what then is the catch? :confused:

[CKava]

Im a bit stumped as to what the fascinating aspect of this story is... If you accept that he is pyschic the story is hardly very puzzling and if he isnt a pyschic you do not get told the result of the story so he could well be wrong. Oh and even if the end was included and he turned out to be correct this wouldn't really prove anything about freewill, it wouldnt even prove that he ws pyschic (as he could just get lucky). Are you sure you got the story exactly right?

I mean if i put down a gold bar on front of me and said to someone I have foreseen that you will pick this up and run off with it, if they do that it I havent just disproved freewill, Ive just proved Im very stupid...

[Sanitarium]

Open both. If he indeed was psychic, and predicted what you were going to do, nothing could change it. So you may aswell open both. Even if you decide to pick A, he can't put the money back in. And if you open both, you'll find the money anyway.

[nekogami13]

first of all, didn't your parents ever teach you not to talk to strangers-let alone strange beings?

Why are you in a forest?

I suppose it would be a strange being, if he hung out in the forest giving money away. What, he lost his job at the psychic friends network?

Nope, this just sounds like typical predatory behavior. Hang out in an isolated spot, use bait to lure your victim in, while he looks in a box you slip in behind and chloroform him. Since it is the woods, god only knows what he is going to do to you. :eek:

My advice, run like hell,report him to the police.

[aikiwolfie]

This story demonstraights nothing about free will. Given that the being is correct then box 'A' will be empty if you choose box 'A' only or both boxes. However if you choose only box 'B' then box 'A' will have the million. Either way you can only ever end up with the $1000.

This of course is a distraction. A means to try and limit the availible logical options you will take. People of course are not always logical creatuers.

You could for instance laugh it off and walk on by. Given that the being is 'strange' most of us probably would.

Greed can get in the way of logical processing and force you to pick only box 'A' because it potentially has more money in it.

You might be the logical type and pick only box 'B' because you know you're onto a winner.

The point is the choice you make depends on what type of person you are. So it's a test of character. Not free will.

[Greg-VT]

Well, you had a 50-50% chance of $1 million being in box A, and 100% chance of $1000 being in box B.

Now, I would rather risk nothing to get nothing, or a $1,000,000. And I wouldnt bother with an extra $1000 if I could get a million (if I picked both).

So, I would pick box A, because I can pretty safely say I would have picked box A anyway... or would I?

Yes, I would.
1) 50-50% chance of getting $1,000,000. I would go for that.

2) 100% chance of getting $1000. If I have the 50-50 chance of getting $1,000,000, I would rather go for that. So forget box B.

3) And forget choosing both. If I chose box A, I could make an extra $1000 within 12 months anyway.

So.. he knew I would pick box A, I knew I would pick box A... so where does that leave me? With a cool Mil? Or did I miss read it?

But that's just me. Again, I'm risking nothing to get either $1mil or nothing. I'd prefer those chances over a sure $1000.

[Poop-Loops]

He's not very psychic. I'll tackle him and take everything he has on him.

PL

[killbill]

Maybe i should reiterate
The point of this story is, You know that you can only pick A and get the million dollars. But the Boxes are HERE NOW, nothing he can do will change whether the money is in it or not at this point. So, this being the case, why should or shouldnt you take B as well?

[Shaolin Dragon]

Because he is psychic and would have known that was what you were going to do, in which case there would be no money in box A. The boxes may be HERE NOW, and nothing you can do will change what is in them either; but we are assuming that this strange man is psychic and already knew what choice we would make.

This is a purely hypothetical scenario (obviously) and in answering such scenarios, one should keep within the rules defined by the scenario.

[Hannibal]

By the rules defined by the scenario, take the $1000.

It is not really that difficult - he knows exactly what you would do because he is psychic (at least in this restricted universe) so he has not bothered with the million.

Now if you can bring in "external" rules......

[Greg-VT]

Because he is psychic and would have known that was what you were going to do, in which case there would be no money in box A.
Why would there be no money in box A?

The boxes may be HERE NOW, and nothing you can do will change what is in them either; but we are assuming that this strange man is psychic and already knew what choice we would make.
That's right. If you were going to choose box A, It would know, and put the $1mil in box A.

Now that I think about it...

This is really more about self-doubt, not free will...

...one should keep within the rules defined by the scenario.
Yep ;) :p.

[Shaolin Dragon]

Oops, just reread my last post and the first bit makes no sense to me either. :confused:

As I said in my original post, I would choose box A.

Now, an interesting question would be: Assume this strange being is psychic. He tells you that he looked into the future and saw which box you would have chosen had he not told you he was psychic, and placed the money accordingly (i.e. 1 million dollars in box A if you picked box A, 1000 dollars in box B whatever, but this time you only get to pick one).

Now which box would you choose?

Can you ever be 100% certain about what choice you would have made had circumstances been different? In effect, how well do you know yourself?

[killbill]

Is no one else bothered by this? The 1 million dollars is either in box a or not, taking b at this point shouldn't matter. So does it matter?

[Greg-VT]

I would still shoose box A, as I explained in my earlier post.
I would rather a 50-50 chance of getting $1mil, then a 100% chance of getting $1k.

Now bringing the psychic back into it. In the end, you are not questioning which box the creature put the money in, if the Box A has $1mil, or which box you are going to choose.

But you are questioning yourself. Which box would you have choosen before? Which box are you going to choose now? It can keep going, like a catch 22. As soon as you start to question that, and the more and more you do, the more doubt enters your mind. You could stand their forever pondering over "'what's", and "if's", doubting youself and your choice you would have made and the choice you are going to make now.


So does it matter

No, I don't think it matters. It really depends on the person. It depends on whether they would rather an easy $1k, or 50-50 chance of $1mil, and how much they trust themselfs.

You were either going to choose box A or box A, the hard part is figuring out which one you would have choosen.

[WatchfulAbyss]

I think that I would have to walk away with a sure thing so box b :D

[Hapkido]

i take both boxes, knock over the table the boxes were on, kick him in the testis, give him a massive wedgie and hang him from a tree with it, then shake him down for every cent he has on him because he would HAVE to have a mil on him somewhere if he took it out. then another punch in the testis as a goodbye while going "HA HA!" and running off :D

[killbill]

^^ wow looks like you have all the answers. Why havnt you started a religion yet?

[killbill]

Oh and to Ving Tsun:
It doesnt matter what you would have done, the creature knows what you WILL DO. that is why it matters

[Greg-VT]

Oh and to Ving Tsun:
It doesnt matter what you would have done, the creature knows what you WILL DO. that is why it matters
That's right,
I meant it as what you would have done prior to knowing that the being had psychic powers.

[KenpoDavid]

Oh and to Ving Tsun:
It doesnt matter what you would have done, the creature knows what you WILL DO. that is why it matters

Then just do the first thing that comes to mind, since he has seen it you can't change it. Your scenario takes as a base assumption that the future is pre-determined.

[Hugh]

Then just do the first thing that comes to mind, since he has seen it you can't change it. Your scenario takes as a base assumption that the future is pre-determined.

That's right. Just because he says he's read your mind and changed it doesnt alter the fact that the odds remain at 50/50 for getting the right one. may as well close your eyes and pick at random - odds are still the same aren't they?

[killbill]

that's a good point ving tsun. However the fact remains that it shouldnt matter whether or not you take box b, yet it does. That is why this is a question of free will

[#1 Stutta]

I'm confused.

[Oni-Chan]

I would think that the wisest thing is to toss a coin.

If the beast indeed is a psychic it saw me tossing to coin and getting a... which then would be my 1mil.

And if it was lying or bluffing there still would be nice 50/50 chance to get the 1mil.

Tossing coin would let chance to decide the box. and if it was predicted (and there is fate and stuff) then the coin toss would hit right. And if not... well... you would have blaming yourself for not believing the beats after you chose B to defy it.

And hi all... new here *waves*

EDIT typos

[shunyadragon]

I would think that the wisest thing is to toss a coin.

If the beast indeed is a psychic it saw me tossing to coin and getting a... which then would be my 1mil.

And if it was lying or bluffing there still would be nice 50/50 chance to get the 1mil.

Tossing coin would let chance to decide the box. and if it was predicted (and there is fate and stuff) then the coin toss would hit right. And if not... well... you would have blaming yourself for not believing the beats after you chose B to defy it.

And hi all... new here *waves*

EDIT typos

Randomizing the choice with a coin or dice may stump him if he could read your mind, but if he can also foretell the future you do not have a chance.

[killbill]

WOAH! the creature isnt malevolent! the creature has no interest in whether or not you get the 1 million. the point is in YOUR choice not his (he actually has no choice)

[Oni-Chan]

Randomizing the choice with a coin or dice may stump him if he could read your mind, but if he can also foretell the future you do not have a chance.

Well if he can see future then he can see that I randomise it. Fate can’t be altered if there is fate. If the beast can see the future by non-supernatural powers (some form of calculations or such) then it’s just a guess. And if he can see it with supernatural way there is fate and no-matter what you do it has been decided before you born. That’s just way fate works.
(I don’t believe in fate btw... whole concept that everyone in the world are tagged and there is no free will at all in the world just would make me crack. (Which also would be fate if there is one... annoying isn’t it. :o ))

[Tireces]

I don't know if anyone's heard of this before, it is facsinating IMO

you encounter a strange being in the forest. He has 2 boxes in front of him, he tells you that either box A has 1 million dolars or nothing, box B has 1000 dollars. you can pick A, B, or both. heres the catch, he says that he is psychic and looked ahead and saw your choice. If you picked A he put the million dollars in it, if you picked B or both, he put nothing in A. BUT the boxes are physically in front of you here and now, and nothing he can do now will change what is in them. assuming he is telling the truth, What do you pick?

:confused:

I pick him up and use him as a club to whack you for still sending me angry PMs because I thought your proposal that you should be allowed to kill people was rather silly!

[Rogin]

I'd follow him home and take all the money he's got laying around to play such games...

:D

[killbill]

you still havn't answered my question tierces

[Tireces]

What? Why you shouldn't be allowed to kill people? Because thrusting the lives of another into the hands of someone who can't spell "TIRECES" isn't at all a good idea.

[aikiwolfie]

Ok I got a bit lost with this one ... why does box 'B' matter so much again? And some please remind me not to ever go to a MAP meeting with anybody who's posted in this thread. I think I'd probably end up getting turned over. LOL

[Hugh]

I still don't think this is a good thought experiment to illustrate the possibility of free will. Choosing one box over another doesn't really prove anything.

[Radok]

If a psychic exists, that means the future is already written, which would mean free will is nothing but an illusion from the start.

[Jasonds23]

Right, Who does this person think he is anyway?!?!

Walking in the woods! PAH! Like thats legal?
What is this, a free country?

I say put the trees back in the museum where
they belong, and take all the the artifacts out,
replace them with statues of dead celebrities,
and guns.

I mean like, we should offer him money that he doesn't
want, a relationship that doesn't exist, and then get
pissed cause he doesn't like jail, psyche wards,
or the phyche-ics.

Then we can convince him, he's the only one who's
ever lived in the woods, and that will prove him!
Make up some phoney excuse of a diagnosis,
administer a prescription of guine pig pills,
and then....the memorbillia :D

And if he doesn't read our minds, We'll pull out the
mason jar, and give him the Elvis rundown...

Now all we have to do, is forget about the constituation,
morality, education, food, air, water, and lets see what
else will we need.....blame it on all christian soldiers!

Aw who cares, just do a TV show about it...:rolleyes:

[Google7441]

I wouldn't choose a box.